NOAA Storm Prediction Center Releases Tornado Probability Map of the United States

Severe Weather in the Tri-State Feels More Frequent Than Ever

When I started this job 15 years ago, it was pretty rare to have to work outside of office hours because of inclement weather. I’m the person who updates social media and sends out app alerts when there are tornado warnings. Now, it feels like I’m on alert about twice a month.

I’m sure part of that is because our monitoring systems are much more advanced than they used to be. That, along with the rise of the Facebook “meteorologist,” has kept our friends at the National Weather Service busy issuing updates for storms that we might have once considered regular old thunderstorms.

Is Global Warming Contributing to Extreme Weather?

There is also the reality of global warming. Global warming is the long-term increase in Earth’s average surface temperature. As temperatures rise, glaciers and ice sheets melt, and we see more extreme weather, including stronger heatwaves, floods, droughts, and storms.

It certainly feels like severe weather events have become more intense and more frequent over time.

New ‘Tornado Alley’ Now Includes Midwest and Portions of IN, IL, and KY

NOAA Tornado Probability Map Shows High Risk for Illinois

And if you feel like the tri-state is often the target of Mother Nature’s wrath, you are not wrong. When there is a weather bullseye, it seems like we are right in the middle of it. Now we have proof.

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center recently released its annual tornado probability map and, as you might have guessed, we are firmly in Tornado Alley.

According to Illinois meteorologist Darren Leeds, “The new 30 year annual tornado probability map is very interesting. It shows that Tornado Alley is not shifting, but rather expanding. The new data shows that Central and Southern Illinois are in the highest probability zones.”

He also explains, “This map illustrates where a tornado is most likely to occur each year, within 25 miles of a location. The map highlights where the risk is highest over time. That is important for emergency preparedness, planning, and understanding how our severe weather patterns are changing.”

How Many Tornadoes Do We Usually Have in Indiana, Kentucky, and Illinois?

The National Weather Service in Paducah reported that 59 tornadoes hit the area in 2024.

There were a total of 59 tornadoes that touched down across our area in 2024, which was the 2nd most on record for a year only behind the 79 in 2011. The tornadoes covered a total of 443.2 miles (also 2nd most behind the 449.8 miles in 2011). There were 4 EF-3's, one of which became our strongest July tornado on record. The vast majority of them (53) occurred during 4 events: April 2, May 8, May 26, and July 9.

According to Accuweather:

• Kentucky - 57
• Indiana - 61
• Illinois - 126
• Tennessee - 23

Though some states have way more tornadoes like Florida and Texas, they sare spread out over the entire state while ours seems to be concentrated in one area.

HOW TO GET PREPARED

It's always important to prepare for a tornado so you aren't left wondering where to go or what to do.

Listen

If the weather turns dangerous, we go wall-to-wall with our weather partners at Eyewitness News. You can listen on any radio or via our app.

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Have an Emergency Kit

Here's what ready.gov recommends having in a kit.

• Water (one gallon per person per day for several days, for drinking and sanitation)
• Food (at least a several-day supply of non-perishable food)
• Battery-powered or hand crank radio and a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert
• Flashlight
• First aid kit
• Extra batteries
• Whistle (to signal for help)
• Dust mask (to help filter contaminated air)
• Plastic sheeting and duct tape (to shelter in place)
• Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties (for personal sanitation)
• Wrench or pliers (to turn off utilities)
• Manual can opener (for food)
• Local maps
• Cell phone with chargers and a backup battery

Additional Emergency Supplies

Consider adding the following items to your emergency supply kit based on your individual needs:

• Soap, hand sanitizer and disinfecting wipes to disinfect surfaces
• Prescription medications. About half of all Americans take a prescription medicine every day. An emergency can make it difficult for them to refill their prescription or to find an open pharmacy. Organize and protect your prescriptions, over-the-counter drugs, and vitamins to prepare for an emergency.
• Non-prescription medications such as pain relievers, anti-diarrhea medication, antacids or laxatives
• Prescription eyeglasses and contact lens solution
• Infant formula, bottles, diapers, wipes and diaper rash cream
• Pet food and extra water for your pet
• Cash or traveler's checks
• Important family documents such as copies of insurance policies, identification and bank account records saved electronically or in a waterproof, portable container
• Sleeping bag or warm blanket for each person
• Complete change of clothing appropriate for your climate and sturdy shoes
• Fire extinguisher
• Matches in a waterproof container
• Feminine supplies and personal hygiene items
• Mess kits, paper cups, plates, paper towels and plastic utensils
• Paper and pencil
• Books, games, puzzles or other activities for children