NOAA Winter Outlook for Kentucky and Indiana

What NOAA's Winter Outlook Means for Kentucky and Indiana

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its U.S. winter outlook for 2026-2027, and it looks like El Niño will be a star player, for better or worse. And by that I mean there will be doses of good AND bad news for everyone.

The NOAA outlook covers December through February, and the agency is essentially saying that our parkas might not see quite as much action this winter. That's probably good news for folks in parts of the northern U.S., including the Midwest and Pacific Northwest, where warmer-than-normal temperatures are favored.

In Kentucky and Indiana, warmer-than-normal temperatures are also favored, although the odds aren't as pronounced as they are in some regions farther north, according to NOAA.

What the Winter Outlook Says About Snow

But temperatures are only part of the winter story. What about snow? Here in the tri-state and the rest of the Ohio Valley, NOAA gives us equal chances of below-average, near-average, or above-average total precipitation. That doesn't mean equal chances of those three snowfall outcomes, though. Rain counts, too, and the outlook doesn't tell us how much snow we'll see.

A New Tool Could Help Snow Lovers Track Winter Weather

However, a new National Weather Service tool called the Probabilistic Precipitation Portal (and yes, I'm reminded of that great Broadcast News line, "A lot of alliteration from anxious anchors placed in powerful posts.". Sorry...back to the weather!) could prove particularly useful for snow lovers.

Now operational, the portal allows users to view low-end, expected, and high-end amounts of rain, snow, and ice for forecast periods of up to 72 hours. It also shows the probabilities of precipitation exceeding specific amounts. In other words, you can get a better sense of the range of possible outcomes instead of focusing on just one projected total.

There's another change worth knowing about.

As they do with severe thunderstorms, National Weather Service forecasters can now use the phrase “Particularly Dangerous Situation” in blizzard and ice storm warnings when the storms reach a level "of extreme and historic severity and pose an exceptional threat that is above and beyond the typical blizzard or ice storm."

Fingers crossed that we don't have to hear it, though.