A La Niña Winter Is Headed for the Tri-State; Here’s What to Expect

Among all the folk ways people predict the weather (such as woolly worms and persimmon seeds), I look forward to meteorologists' analyses of what I refer to as the "Climate Siblings." They would be El Niño and La Niña, and, no, that isn't an official nickname. That's all mine.

El Niño or La Niña

Collectively, they are officially known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO. I like mine better, but that's beside the point. The two patterns do produce different results, but they have something in common. Both El Niño and La Niña can mean LOTS of precipitation depending on where you live. But in the Ohio Valley, El Niño typically leads to warmer and drier winters here in the tri-state. Our most recent El Niño occurred in 2023.

If that's your preference, however, buckle up because our Kentucky-Indiana patch of Earth is gearing up for a La Niña winter.

La Niña Winter in the Tri-State

Permission granted to conclude that, as the opposite of brother El Niño, this atmospheric phenomenon is a cooling of the ocean's surface in the same Pacific regions. As a result, our part of the country tends to experience colder and wetter than normal weather in the winter.

So, is it possible to have neither? By that I mean, is there something in between that we can look forward to in the future? The answer is yes. During what are known as ENSO-neutral conditions, the Pacific Ocean's surface is neither cooler nor warmer than normal. But that doesn't necessarily mean an uneventful winter.

As for this winter's La Niña, the World Meteorological Organization is saying that temperatures are still likely to be above normal, despite its definition.

I guess we wait and see. And maybe our winter weather will fall back on the old Ohio Valley standard. "If you don't like the weather, wait five minutes."