Tornado Potential for Western Kentucky Has Increased for Wednesday — ‘Moderate’ Level 4 out of 5 Risk

The week began with the tri-state area under an 'Enhanced' Level 3 out of 5 threat for severe weather which means everything would be in play--strong damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. It was already not looking good.

MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER

The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center has now placed most of the tri-state--western Kentucky and southwestern Indiana--under a 'Moderate' Level 4 risk.

"Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Wednesday. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and significant damaging gusts are all likely with the most intense storms."

But, as you can see, the Ohio Valley will also be under the gun and facing the threat of 75-plus MPH winds, numerous tornadoes, and large hail.

WHAT A MODERATE RISK MEANS

The National Weather Service defines "Moderate Risk" as:

"An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense."

THE TIMING OF THE STORMS

Here's what the National Weather Service is saying about Wednesday:

"Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop as early as daybreak over southeast Missouri Wednesday morning. However, the greatest coverage of severe thunderstorms in the outlook area will be Wednesday afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front.

Damaging winds of 60 to 70 MPH, large hail up to two inches, and isolated tornadoes will all be possible with isolated storms that develop along and ahead of a squall line Wednesday afternoon. Some embedded tornadoes can also be expected within the line of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Torrential rainfall with these thunderstorms may produce very brief overland flooding."

Again, two rounds are expected beginning in the late overnight hours Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but the greatest threat appears to be for Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

Judging by the map, the northern border of the region under a Moderate risk for severe weather sort of bisects Henderson County and reaches into only a small portion of southwestern Daviess County with other counties in the southeastern portion of our coverage area still under an Enhanced Level 3 risk. But that doesn't mean we ALL  shouldn't be prepared for a massive severe weather outbreak.